William Murray
10/29/2018
Letter to Boss


Boss,
With the given data, I was able to predict the monthly sales forecast for the upcoming months. In region one we are given the estimated unit sales mean, low and high numbers. We are able to find the estimate for every given region for each month of January, February and March. To find the estimated low and high unit sales, all we had to do was either subtract or add the standard deviation depending on which one you were looking to find. This gives us a much better range of what our sales are going to be. This means that the range is essentially just the standard deviation times two.
Our sales predictions will certainly help us get a better understanding of what our sales should look like come January 2019. To do this, we find unit sales of January 2019 by multiplying January 2018 sales by one plus the growth factor. If the growth factor is positive, we will make more sales. However, if it is a negative growth factor, then we will make less than we did in the past. Again, these are all accurate predictions, none of this being facts.
Another factor that we have to look at is where we are spending our money. We can see our average order numbers per region and see how much money we are spending on them. This also goes for the money invested into Dmail, Email, SMS, and advertising as well. By looking at these numbers we can predict what are sales are going to be. For example, our numbers for region 1000 are much different than region 1004. The region 1000 average order is $38 while region 1004 is $1525. Region 1000 has a Dmail of $175, Email of $200, SMS of $100 and advertisements of $1200. Region 1004 spends much more on Dmail at $400, spends the same on Email, and then $125 on SMS with $1300 on advertising. Seeing the different amounts that these regions spend on different things can help predict what the sales will be. Since region 1004 spends more it is much more likely that they will make more as well. Predictive analysis can be extremely useful for companies like us in order for us to know how to budget.
It is always important to have a strategy plan for your upcoming year which is why we do this. Doing this is the way we find our sales forecast for 2019 and it will help us succeed with our accurate predictions.


Sincerely,

    William Murray

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Week 4

     Week four was a little different than the previous weeks in terms of structure. This week there was no reading due which gave us more time to work with Simmons and learn all about how to work with the analytical data that it provides. I enjoyed learning about this and how the website can be so helpful.      The first subject that we researched in class on Simmons was Oreo consumption. There is a whole lot of data all separated by demographics such as age, sex, or what ever it is that you plug in and are looking for. Simmons provides exact data with percents and totals.      Simmons is really good for company's because you can really research anything. In class we saw researches on Oreos, Netflix vs Hulu, and even cigarette usage. Learning how to use a database such as Simmons is huge for any kind of research. It could be for starting up a new business, doing research for a business that is already owned or anything where data is neces...
Read more
Week One Recap:         Every Tuesday and Thursday this semester we will start our day in the small class of Marketing Insights. So far we have started both classes in unique ways. Day one, we walk in to see three ping pong tables set up and got a little wake up exercise of table tennis. Professor creatively turned it into an analytics exercise by having us recreate a dashboard of what is most important to take note of when discussing ping pong. Things to consider were speed of ball, energy of player, best spot to hit and more. This was a fun and simple way to introduce the subject for the first time. The next class we had Play-Doh sitting infront of us for a way to keep us focused. Many students, including myself, enjoy having something infront of them to play with while listening to discussion.         Analytics is a necessity to success in modern day marketing. All major companies are hiring students who are knowledgeable in this subject. A...
Read more
As we just wrapped up our last class, I really came to appreciate what we learned this semester. The simulations that were done taught me about the trial and error of data analytics. Your'e not going to get everything right the first try. Learning how to read data will help us be successful in the future and I can already see it happening in real life. There have been times at work this year where one of my managers will ask me to help him on excel or help him with promotions. He will show me how many people we are hosting at the bar and lounge on certain nights. I give him suggestions that I think will help based off of things that I have seen on previous nights. This class has opened my mind to this and I know it will help me in the future. This class taught me that numbers are your friends. Numbers will always be your friends because they are facts, no ifs and or buts about. That also reminds me of earlier in the semester when we were talking about good vs bad data and how y...
Read more